The timeline
| When | What | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026, 04:41:03 JST (19 Oct, 20:41 BST) | Liftoff on H3 flight 10 from Tanegashima Space Center | Happened |
| About 71 min 13 s after liftoff | MMX separates and is put on its path to Mars | Happened |
| August 2027 | Mars orbit insertion | Planned |
| September 2027 | Quasi satellite orbit around Phobos begins | Planned |
| Early 2029 | Idefix rover released onto Phobos | Planned |
| 2030 | Landing and sampling, planned as two soft landings | Planned |
| 2030 | Departure from the Martian sphere, with a look at Deimos | Planned |
| 2031 | Return capsule comes down in Australia | Planned |
Where JAXA or ESA only give a month or a year, I picked a day inside it so the replay can move. Those dates on the read out are mine, and the phase is marked planned.
What is a quasi satellite orbit?
Phobos is about 26 km across and its gravity is far too weak to hold a spacecraft in an ordinary orbit around it. So MMX orbits Mars instead, on a path that keeps it close to Phobos. Seen from Phobos, MMX seems to loop round the moon in an oval twice as tall as it is wide. That is the small inset in the close view.
What is to scale
Earth and Mars come from JPL's approximate orbital elements, so where they sit on any date is real. Mars, Phobos and Deimos are drawn to scale in the close view, but the moons move faster than life so you can see them. The transfer paths, the capture orbit, the ascent track and the landing are my drawings of the idea, not flight data.
Sources
- JAXA: Launch result of the MMX spacecraft aboard H3 Launch Vehicle flight No.10 (liftoff time, separation at about 71 min 13 s)
- JAXA: FY2026 launch plan for H3 and MMX, in Japanese (ascent event times)
- JAXA: MMX mission site (mission schedule, two soft landings, return in 2031)
- ESA: Mars moon lander set to launch on 19 October (Mars orbit in August 2027, Phobos from September 2027, Idefix in early 2029, landing in 2030, capsule in Australia)
- ESA: MMX lifts off to Mars's moon Phobos
- NASA JPL: Approximate positions of the planets (Earth and Mars orbits)
- NASA NSSDC: Mars fact sheet (Mars radius, Phobos and Deimos orbits)
Spot a mistake? Tell me. More replays are on the way.